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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."